Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
